PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal is contemplating a further reduction in the number of ships passing through each day, due to increasing drought conditions impacting its water reserves. According to administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta, the transit count could decrease to approximately 29 vessels daily in February or March 2027. Any additional restrictions would depend on ongoing dry weather and reservoir levels. The waterway is already moving toward a cap of 32 transits per day starting from Sept. 15.
The Panama Canal Authority began reducing operational capacity after rainfall and watershed inflows fell below expected levels during the rainy season. Initially, daily crossings decreased from an average of 35 to 34, before the planned cut to 32. The canal relies on freshwater stored in Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to operate its locks, with each transit requiring water to lift or lower vessels between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
During fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits per day through June 30. From October to June, it recorded 10,726 crossings, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. These figures were recorded before worsening rainfall conditions led to the implementation of new operational limits. The canal remains a critical route for container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and other vessels engaged in international trade.
Reservoir levels influence daily operational capacity
Water reserves have historically dictated how many ships can transit the canal during dry spells. During the severe 2023 drought, daily transits dropped to 22 in December as Gatun Lake levels fell to unusually low points. Recovery ensued after rainfall resumed and water conservation measures helped replenish the reservoirs. Currently, canal management continues to monitor lake levels, watershed inflows, and precipitation data to determine daily capacity limits.
Vessel draft rules have also been modified under current water management strategies. A planned reduction in Neopanamax draft to 47.5 feet was postponed after officials reviewed updated reservoir data. The maximum draft was kept at 48 feet. These draft restrictions influence how deeply loaded ships sit in the water and can affect cargo capacity passing through the canal.
Fewer transit slots lead to tighter booking regulations
As the number of daily transit slots decreases, the canal has revised its booking and auction procedures. Auction categories now categorize vessels by cargo type, such as container ships, gas carriers, tankers, and bulk vessels. Priority is often given to full container ships with higher cargo capacity in some Neopanamax allocations when other factors are equal. Officials encourage vessels without reservations to use the booking system to secure confirmed transit dates.
No formal decision has been made yet to reduce the daily limit to 29 ships. Espino de Marotta indicated that this level could be a restriction if dry conditions persist into early 2027. Additionally, the canal is progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project designed to enhance long-term water storage capacity. Authorities state that this initiative will support canal operations and improve water supply for a significant portion of Panama’s population.