ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty within the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this statistic in its October 2026 regional economic update. The organization assessed poverty based on the international threshold of $3 per day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. The poverty rate in Pakistan at that threshold increased by 6.4 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25, positioning Pakistan as the primary contributor to the rise in extreme poverty across MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen combined make up another 47% of the population living below the $3 poverty line across the region. These four countries, including Pakistan, represent roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, about 14% of the global population living in extreme poverty resides in this region, second only to Sub-Saharan Africa. MENAAP remains the only region where poverty levels surpass pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
At the higher $4.20 daily income threshold used for lower-middle-income economies, Pakistan’s poverty situation also worsened. The percentage of the population below this level increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25, reaching approximately 48% in 2024 compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional report attributed this deterioration to several factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic adjustment efforts, all contributing to the country’s worsening poverty indicators.
Poverty levels escalate following years of economic challenges
A new household survey released in early 2026 caused a significant revision in regional poverty estimates. The updated figures elevated MENAAP’s estimated 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%, adding roughly 21 million people to the region’s total count of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP remains one of only two global regions with an extreme poverty rate exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
Pakistan’s economy has shown signs of recovery with positive growth, yet poverty levels remain high. The latest forecasts project GDP growth of 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026 and is expected to rise to 8.2% in 2027, indicating that inflation will remain above the 2026 estimate despite ongoing economic expansion.
Changes in regional classification influence poverty comparisons
The 48% share also reflects a statistical adjustment that altered regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank’s classification system moved Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative change did not affect the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Khurram Schehzad, Pakistan’s finance minister adviser, explained that the new grouping impacted regional poverty totals because Pakistan’s large population was now included in MENAAP calculations. Consequently, this classification affects how regional poverty shares are presented.
The October update also highlighted weaker economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026. The region’s output is projected to decline by 2.1%, following a 3.3% growth in 2025. Various economies faced challenges from conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade. Despite these difficulties, developing oil importers like Pakistan are expected to remain comparatively resilient, with a growth forecast of 4.3% for 2026. Nevertheless, rising food and energy prices continue to put pressure on household purchasing power across several countries.