ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of the population living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank provided this statistic in its October 2026 regional economic report. Poverty levels were assessed using the global threshold of $3 per day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that benchmark increased by 6.4 percentage points, making the country the leading contributor to extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together make up another 47% of individuals living below the $3 threshold across the region. Alongside Pakistan, these three nations constitute roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor. Currently, about 14% of the world’s population living in extreme poverty resides in this region, only surpassed by Sub-Saharan Africa. MENAAP remains the sole region where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
Pakistan’s poverty situation also worsened at the higher $4.20 daily income threshold used for lower-middle-income countries. The percentage of people living below this line increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. In 2024, the rate approached 48%, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional analysis attributes the decline in living standards to the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, elevated inflation, currency devaluation, and extended economic reforms. These factors are cited as key drivers behind the worsening poverty indicators in Pakistan.
Poverty levels escalate following years of economic upheaval
A new household survey introduced a significant revision to the regional poverty estimates earlier in 2026. The updated figures increased MENAAP’s projected 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added approximately 21 million individuals to the region’s estimated number of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP was one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
Despite a return to positive economic growth, Pakistan’s poverty figures remain high. The latest projections indicate GDP growth of 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation forecasts stand at 7.1% for 2026 and 8.2% for 2027, meaning inflation is expected to be higher in 2027 despite continued economic expansion.
Changes in regional classification impact poverty comparisons
The 48% share also results from a statistical adjustment that altered regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank shifted Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP group. The Pakistani government clarified that this administrative change did not affect the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Khurram Schehzad, an adviser to Pakistan’s Finance Minister, explained that the new grouping impacted regional poverty figures because Pakistan’s large population was included in MENAAP calculations. This classification change influences how regional poverty proportions are represented.
The October report also highlighted weaker economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026, projecting a regional contraction of 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025. Several economies faced challenges from conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade. However, developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, remained relatively resilient, with an expected growth of 4.3% in 2026. Meanwhile, rising food and energy prices continued to exert downward pressure on household purchasing power across numerous countries.